there is _no_ way you will get get a _way_ better win chance system that the flawed one we have currently. Cause the more you take into account, the more new variables come to mind that need to be put into the equation!
I personally use the current winchance as an indicator: if it's below 40%, i know there must be a bunch of people on the enemy team that need to be killed sooner than their tomatoes. BUT: even that is not giving you any guarantee that this will influence the game in the right direction! You just might have OK players on your team who all took a wrong decision at the beginning of the game and get slaughtered (one for one of course, it always has to be like in a bad Bud Spencer movie) at the other flank... then there's no way that taking out key players from the enemy team is influencing the outcome...
