As Quaksen suggested, a replay would probably help the most.
I have 59,541 battles in arty (I know...tankers reading this now have a headache) and the only time I have ever experienced what you have described has been due to an internet connectivity issue. I don't know exactly what the exclamation mark in the place of the ping number is, but I guess it means that the latency is too high for the game to operate in an acceptable manner. Just a guess though. That would definitely cause you to miss shots.
Make sure you have server crosshair enabled in the game client. I would also install PMOD Server Crosshair from the modpack. This will show you in game where the server crosshair is aiming as it can be different from the client crosshair aiming point. If you have a slow internet connection you might have to wait a bit for the server crosshair to settle into the same spot as the client side crosshair.
I hope this helps you. I didn't see anything that caught my attention in your logs, but by no means am I the most competent at reading logs. Maybe Aslain or Quaksen or one of the other real modders will see something.